ACUS11 KWNS 152022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152021=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1080
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...northeastern IN...northern OH and southeastern MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152021Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for isolated damaging winds
and marginally severe hail this afternoon and evening. A watch is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Across the southern Great Lakes, afternoon visible
imagery showed developing thunderstorms across portions of southern
MI into northern IN/OH. Aided by forcing for ascent ahead of a
compact shortwave trough moving in from the north, additional storm development/intensification is likely through this afternoon. Ahead
of the developing storms, afternoon heating has allowed for the
development of ~500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 35-45 kt of effective shear.
A few robust/organized updrafts in the form of multi cell clusters
and or weak supercells may develop and pose a severe risk this
afternoon and early evening. Given the well-mixed boundary layer and
mostly unidirectional shear profiles, damaging winds would be the
most likely threat. Some marginally severe hail may also be possible
with any more persistent storms. Given the relatively limited
buoyancy, severe coverage is expected to remain isolated and
gradually decrease through the evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Convective trends will be monitored though a weather watch
is not anticipated

..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5XRknS8JG__HxLlIzIilk6-YGLbVL3jPfUZ1aVZ3O7nEwE9t1zjeR1jNAr_nLmtyv0Ur7nJKb= mZUGE9Ts1h9p9mMB8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 40468488 41018543 42518437 42938397 43068344 43008294
42878260 42478197 41908117 41468093 40928094 40328144
40018213 40058354 40208457 40468488=20


=3D =3D =3D
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