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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1079

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 15 20:20:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 152020
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152020=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-152145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1079
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...Far Southeast CO...Southwest KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306...

    Valid 152020Z - 152145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of very large
    hail and strong gusts will persist across southeast CO and southwest
    KS. Storms are beginning to show signs of upscale growth into a
    linear MCS.

    DISCUSSION...Earlier storm over Bent County CO produced strong
    outflow, which was sampled at 46 kt from the southwest at LAA. This
    outflow likely interacted with the outflow from the storm over
    Prowers County CO, contributing to the forward surge recently noted
    on reflectivity imagery. Intense thunderstorms are ongoing directly
    downstream, suggesting further cold pool intensification may occur
    over the next hour or so. As such, this convective evolution may be
    the beginnings of upscale growth into an organized MCS that then
    progresses southeastward into the area of maximum buoyancy. That
    being said, given the complexity of these interactions, further
    observation are be needed to confirm the validity of this evolution.


    Regardless of storm evolution, the ongoing storms across southwest
    KS are in an environment characterized by robust buoyancy (i.e. 2500
    J/kg of MLCAPE) and strong shear (i.e. effective bulk shear 35-40
    kt), and will continue to pose a threat for very large hail and
    strong gusts for the next few hours.

    ..Mosier.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8EOp-5TBv_GdpuAmQGBpoBimmA-No6i_5zRQuoGWUIesMh7TCtBPX6e1S2txk1b30s4IeIezU= bg1tcVbIpmJqBr-Qvg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 37880336 38400293 38720207 38790119 38450022 37410019
    37060111 37050237 37250323 37880336=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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