ACUS11 KWNS 151953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151953=20
TXZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Northwest TX/TX Big Country into North and Central
TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151953Z - 152200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of significant severe, including giant
hail greater than 3" in diameter and gusts to 80 mph, are possible
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows cirrus streaming from
west TX northeastward into north TX, indicative of a corridor of
strong mid/upper-level flow. Some cumulus has started to build
beneath these higher clouds, amid both air mass destabilization and
lift provided by both surface convergence and the glancing influence
of the shortwave trough moving into the TX Panhandle. The character
of cumulus field and recent mesoanalysis suggest that some
convective inhibition remains in place, but this should erode
shortly as heating continues.

The environment across the region represents a rare combination of
robust buoyancy and intense vertical shear. Recent mesoanalysis
estimates MLCAPE of 3000 to 4000 J/kg amid effective bulk shear of
65 kt. Rapid intensification into intense discrete supercells is
anticipated once thunderstorm initiation occurs. All severe hazards
are possible, including giant hail (greater than 3" in diameter) and
strong wind gusts to 80 mph. Tornadoes cannot be completely ruled
out, but modest low-level shear and high LCLs suggest a somewhat
lower probability of occurrence.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5gKLmA8-MzynUhFK92d8n15T_Ms2IwOk1_Pyb1YEAzBd850zAIXp2jCYQakkwtilx7g7GtubO= 3GLXu_5vMQrK7DEGaQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 32110042 33290023 33519939 33499796 33009646 31139676
30859896 31320048 32110042=20


=3D =3D =3D
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