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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1074

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 15 17:53:14 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 151753
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151752=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-151915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1074
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern MS and southeastern LA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

    Valid 151752Z - 151915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds will continue to be a threat
    with thunderstorms across parts of southern Mississippi and
    southeastern LA. Some of the hail could be very large (2+ inches).

    DISCUSSION...Primary severe threat in the short term across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 304 will remain tied to an intense supercell
    across far south-central MS. Additional robust convective
    development to the south of this supercell is possible, with a few
    cells recently developing along what appears to be a marine warm
    front. Modest low-level warm advection with a 25-30 kt
    west-southwesterly low-level jet may also be aiding this activity.
    45-50 kt of deep-layer shear related to southern-stream mid-level
    jet will continue to organize updrafts, with supercells likely
    remaining the primary thunderstorm mode. Very strong instability,
    with 3000-4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE estimated by latest mesoanalysis,
    along with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large to very
    large hail threat with any supercell. Severe/damaging downdraft
    winds may also occur given fairly steep low-level lapse rates across
    this area. With weak large-scale ascent, overall coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain fairly isolated this afternoon.

    ..Gleason.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_QMqTAXzrWns7CE-6jvAu5_5bdDmaeQD7iSKMuFj_iOx6tjrfPzOVmHGOUIytB9xyORt-9rEi= 95eTuHwGHdYWUneCA8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31409067 31368931 30808873 30208944 30489092 31409067=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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