ACUS11 KWNS 151744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151744=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-151945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1073
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Southwest KS...Far Southeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151744Z - 151945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very
large hail, and a tornado or two are possible across far southeast
CO into southwest KS this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown an increasingly
agitated cumulus field across southwest KS over the past hour or so.
A few instances of greater vertical development are now apparent
within this field, and the expectation is for eventual thunderstorm
initiation as air mass destabilization persists and lift, both
attendant to the approaching shortwave trough and withing areas of
low-level confluence, increases.=20

Very steep lapse rates are in place, with mesoanalysis estimating
8.5 to 9 deg C per km from 700 to 500 mb. Continued low-level
moisture advection into this region is expected, counteracting any
mixing and likely keeping dewpoints in the low 60s. This combination
of low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in
strong buoyancy, with MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg possible this
afternoon. Vertical shear will be stronger farther south, but 30 to
40 kt of effective bulk shear is still anticipated over this area.
This should be sufficient for supercells, with very large hail as
the primary risk. Some hail may exceed 2.5" in diameter. Strong
downdrafts are possible in this region as well. There is some threat
for a tornado or two is well, but, despite favorable low-level
moisture, LCLs will still be relatively high. The tornado risk does
increase with southward extent where stronger southeasterly surface
winds are expected.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!71B5-cFC-gc0JU2v4Emp1cnjXFWnH7fUmujTcw8FonDdwhiM5QR0oH3aapaBIlWbSO4U2nanv= lFnq5F2vlDK8GhZn18$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 37120013 36950062 36910101 36930150 37020189 37310224
38030204 38310087 37650008 37120013=20


=3D =3D =3D
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