ACUS11 KWNS 151415
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151415=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-151645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeast/coastal GA and far north FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 151415Z - 151645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging winds and hail may gradually
increase this morning. Watch issuance is possible in the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will move east-southeastward this morning
across southern GA and towards the Atlantic Coast. The airmass
across far southeast GA into northeast FL is less unstable compared
to locations farther south/west due to an outflow boundary/
convectively reinforced front draped from southern AL into the FL
Panhandle. The ongoing activity may be slightly elevated at the
moment. But, diurnal heating and gradually moistening low-levels
should allow MLCAPE to increase this morning, and erode lingering
MLCIN. Eventually, thunderstorms may become surface based and pose a
threat for damaging winds as low-level lapse rates steepen. Strong
deep-layer shear should also support some threat for supercells and
hail. Observational trends will be closely monitored for possible
watch issuance in the next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5IDL8ZoRvjXuXleLRXPYpOyjgWn_ihG-DAwdbvtUvPMQ2Xx2o3GoYgBb6n4DA3cbPZZhDvQ9s= 60ifYFa1QcBfRt8ocs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

LAT...LON 31478297 31768264 31238149 30308168 30078241 30228312
30898289 31478297=20


=3D =3D =3D
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