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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1066

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 15 11:47:09 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 151147
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151146=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-151345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1066
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0646 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...ArkLaMiss region eastward into west-central AL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151146Z - 151345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some uptick in storm intensity is possible with time this
    morning. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A few elevated supercells have persisted through the
    night from northeast LA into central MS, to the north of an
    outflow-reinforced surface boundary draped from northern LA into
    southern MS. While early-day visible imagery shows both low
    cloudiness and anvil cirrus across parts of the region, at least
    modest diurnal heating will be possible south of the ongoing
    convection, and temperatures have already risen into the mid/upper
    70s F across parts of central MS. Decreasing MLCINH may allow for
    ongoing storms to become rooted closer to the surface as they move east-southeastward, with MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and strong
    deep-layer shear continuing to support both discrete and clustered supercells.=20

    Any tendency toward more surface-based storms would result in an
    increasing damaging-wind threat, in addition to the ongoing threat
    of hail (possibly approaching 2 inches in diameter). Modestly
    enhanced low-level shear/SRH resulting from a moderate southwesterly
    low-level jet (as noted on the KDGX VWP) could also support a
    conditional threat of a tornado with any sustained surface-based
    supercell later this morning. Watch issuance is possible if ongoing
    storms persist and show indications of becoming surface-based with
    time.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ZIQycZvB-PnIx2UAYntkc8LM1D8yVNTBQSplLx2luBpI_lycF-U7L4B9RYjK-M9DMCUEITII= va5E9RjtLz8iEOqx0I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33269193 33148986 32948879 32898806 32778767 32428757
    32408858 31848900 31658942 31859044 32179138 32439168
    32669180 33269193=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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