ACUS11 KWNS 150853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150852=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-151015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Far southern MS...South AL...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 150852Z - 151015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat may increase with time this
morning. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Initially shallow convection has recently deepened
northeast of Mobile, just to the north of an outflow-reinforced
surface boundary. While this deeper convection is likely somewhat
elevated, MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and effective shear of
50+ kt will support supercell potential, with a threat of large hail
and perhaps locally damaging gusts. Additional storm development is
possible with time this morning as shallow convection that initiates
within the effective warm sector deepens near/north of the boundary.

The potential for truly surface-based storm development is more
uncertain, due to a capping inversion between 850-700 mb, and a
tendency for warm-sector convection to quickly cross to the cool
side of the boundary. However, with MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg
and favorable shear, a surface-based supercell cannot be ruled out,
especially if some modification can occur north of the boundary
later this morning. Any sustained surface-based supercell would pose
a conditional risk of all severe hazards.=20

Coverage of the severe threat in the near term remains uncertain,
but watch issuance is possible if trends support the development of
multiple supercells across the region.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!79h_tiIJeoOPRWM7z6imJxYOBqiMTevGOPL4kCfrSOp4Fu4IxnEnFnD_9sZAFyIao4-qjn5vy= 821BTbJ9IQR_KkzxxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30488915 31448780 31638634 31278616 30778650 30558681
30418711 30398761 30388812 30398873 30488915=20


=3D =3D =3D
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