ACUS11 KWNS 150134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150133=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-150330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...northeastern Arkansas...the Missouri Boot heel and
portions of western Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 150133Z - 150330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Splitting supercells may continue to pose a risk for
isolated large hail for a few more hours this evening. Convective
trends will be monitored though severe coverage is expected to
remain isolated and a weather watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...To the northeast of Severe Watch #297, isolated
thunderstorms including a couple of splitting supercells have been
noted across portions of northeastern AR and far southeastern MO.
Over the last hour, these storms have slowly intensified ahead of a
subtle southern stream shortwave trough over northeast OK and
southern MO. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and 50 kt
of unidirectional effective shear will continue to support robust
organized updrafts in a splitting supercell mode. Isolated large
hail will be the primary concern with the persistent storms as they
track slowly east/southeast over the next few hours. Storm coverage
and longevity remains somewhat uncertain given previous convective
overturning and the loss of daytime heating. Conditions will be
monitored, but the lack of greater storm coverage beyond the ongoing
storms suggests a weather watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5X9qZvpj3C_wx4tlni5mOdUmnp15hMTDwDZW2NrC67RezuC7hb4E_-873kCLmGOBCClQ186II= u_XadX_6bSD9rArveM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 36589018 36428952 35728922 35308915 35108931 35038954
34999030 35209055 35539124 35699176 35879218 36009228
36259214 36479167 36569101 36589018=20


=3D =3D =3D
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