ACUS11 KWNS 142327
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142327=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-150100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1053
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas and far western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 142327Z - 150100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream watch will likely be needed across eastern
Texas and far western Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Two strong supercells are moving southeast across watch
295 and will approach the edge of this watch in the next 60 to 90
minutes. A weak low-level jet will likely prevent upscale growth and
a large MCS from developing. However, dewpoints in the mid 70s will
support sustained instability into the late evening and a sustained
severe weather threat south and east of watch 295. Large hail will
continue to be the primary threat, but a damaging wind threat may
increase through the evening, especially if bowing segments can
develop if additional updrafts develop and cluster. The last several
runs of the WoFs are split with some showing more linear bowing
segments and others maintaining a more discrete supercell mode.
Regardless of the exact storm mode, a severe weather threat is
expected to persist and a downstream watch will likely be needed.

..Bentley/Grams.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72k9R2H13NXTYNsUB2K0Rt7aT9TZf0N4qSkz6Ikpbe24gJECeOLXcv4YYrIq3Z7oHEzv5wnSz= Z6QqaqLmdKKHgROW1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31789679 32379507 32369397 31759301 31399274 31049366
30929451 31029559 31299645 31789679=20


=3D =3D =3D
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