ACUS11 KWNS 142257
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142257=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-150030-
Mesoscale Discussion 1052
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southeast Oklahoma and western and
central Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...
Valid 142257Z - 150030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
continues.
SUMMARY...The large hail threat persists across central Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed in Arkansas in a
recovered airmass with MLCAPE around 2500 to 3000 J/kg and effective
shear around 60 to 70 knots per SPC mesoanalysis. Given this
extremely favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment
downstream. The supercell near Hot Springs, Arkansas recently
reported 2.75 inch hail, and additional very large hail is possible
with this storm and the others which have developed in the region.
Visible satellite trends earlier suggested some storms may develop
across southeast Oklahoma. Cu have since become more flat in the
region, potentially due to subsidence in the wake of the shortwave
crossing north-central Arkansas. SPC objective analysis still
suggests an uncapped airmass with MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg, so
cannot rule out additional development in eastern Oklahoma, but at
this time it appears less likely than it did earlier.
..Bentley.. 06/14/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NEoga6F8Hy8w-h-9mw2xYzu6Y3G01aMn_vzKsNKCc9Q8MhKaObSIJV5rSPC2-aNrMRoC39Eh= OULj2_tGxufmKOoX18$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...
LAT...LON 35139472 35419304 35059133 34219125 33619126 33159203
33239317 33509417 33799476 33839520 34039589 35139472=20
=3D =3D =3D
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