ACUS11 KWNS 142114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142114=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0414 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern Oklahoma and central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 142114Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for large hail and damaging winds may increase
this afternoon and evening. Supercells with large to very large hail
and damaging winds are the main risk. A new Weather Watch may be
needed.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of early day convection, new development
has been noted in the recovering air mass across far eastern OK and
central AR. Strong heating and unseasonably steep mid-level lapse
rates of 8-9 C/km were supporting 2500-300 J/kg of MLCAPE with 60-70
kt of effective shear from SPC mesoanalysis. As storms evolve and
mature, the cape/shear space, supercell mode, and very steep lapse
rates will favor large hail production with the more intense storms. Significant hail (2+ in) also appears possible. Storms should
persist into this evening with a continued severe risk across
central and possibly eastern AR. A new Weather Watch is likely
needed this afternoon and evening.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-7PLIKU8iEONiBk1NK_FXsjFtZ_9JDfcumlR41ISE3yXNSBNnNXUttj-ng511uw5ShYdK_xo7= IqMmYzwf4OijV6qYXA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33599191 33599394 33669485 33749538 33809548 34089581
34269578 34989500 35199430 35189348 35079255 34659162
33999136 33629142 33599191=20


=3D =3D =3D
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