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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1048

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 14 20:54:01 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 142053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142053=20
    ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-142200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1048
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southeast Mississippi into southwestern
    Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 142053Z - 142200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across southeast MS into
    southwestern AL. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will
    promote a severe wind/hail threat and a tornado cannot be ruled out.
    A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the increasing threat.

    DISCUSSION...Much of southeastern MS into southwestern AL resides to
    the south of a baroclinic zone. Here, surface temperatures/dewpoints
    are in the lower 90s/70s F, overspread by 7.5-8 C/km lapse rates,
    contributing to 5500 J/kg SBCAPE (per 20Z mesoanalysis and also
    inferred by 18Z special soundings). Across this warm sector,
    unseasonably strong 700-300 mb flow is contributing to 60+ kts of
    effective bulk shear. Regional VADs and mesoanalysis shows
    hodographs with minimal low-level curvature and upper-level
    elongation, which will support HP supercells and short bowing
    segments (where cold pools dominate). 2+ inch hail and
    hurricane-force gusts are likely with the strongest storms and a
    tornado cannot be ruled out. Additionally, if convection in LA can
    grow upscale into a larger MCS across central MS, than southeast MS
    into southwest AL could experience the later stages of a derecho
    wind event. A WW issuance will be needed soon.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6qchams5ciFBm_CBe10rNXn0ZGGcSa5MOvZirU1JMYHE5vr4nZczRR8J90jWIAOW-gPlD9M5g= dKZKKdFG4_IU6A_kRk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

    LAT...LON 32458845 31928678 31408614 30958621 30778752 30858872
    31068947 31258958 31368917 31508893 32458845=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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