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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1046

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 14 20:30:03 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 142029
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142029=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-142200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1046
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0329 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 142029Z - 142200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Recovering air mass near and along an outflow boundary may
    serve a focus for storm development late this afternoon. Extreme
    buoyancy and strong vertical shear will likely support splitting
    supercells with a risk for large to giant hail and damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...Across portions of north-central and northeastern TX,
    afternoon visible imagery showed deepening cumulus towers along a
    remnant outflow boundary from previous convection. As the boundary
    has modified through the afternoon, extreme instability has
    developed (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) owing to unusually steep mid-level
    lapse rates and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. The strong buoyancy
    colocated with 60-70 kt of effective shear observed from the 18z FTW
    sounding is supportive of potentially intense splitting supercells.
    Given the favorable storm mode and extreme cape/shear space, giant
    hail (3+ in) hail will be possible with the most intense storms
    across north-central and northeast TX. Depending on storm coverage,
    some upscale growth later this evening into one or more organized
    bowing clusters may also favor a risk for damaging wind gusts. A new
    Severe Thunderstorm watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

    ..Lyons/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7NYVAf00YPkOgf2L93-oaMiPoTxd825_w_DTEBW49ZN2Sm0Upn6a0mT5srzaQJaRdkxw5OPvq= J0mzw4kpxXZM57uTpc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32289796 32759768 33239737 33649648 33759586 33819527
    33739475 33469434 33269419 32669410 32159413 32029426
    31869462 31579535 31449603 31499666 31549710 31709757
    31909782 32289796=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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