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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1045

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 14 20:26:01 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 142025
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142025=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-142200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1045
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0325 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Louisiana into central
    Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293...

    Valid 142025Z - 142200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Particularly Dangerous
    Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Severe winds (with potential hurricane-force gusts) remain the primary threat, though large hail
    and a tornado remain possible through the remainder of the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Robust convection is underway across the Lower MS
    Valley, with a small but compact bow echo noted in central MS, and
    convection in northern LA that is attempting to grow upscale into an
    MCS. Though perpendicular to the KDGX radar beam, strong in-bound
    velocities are present with the central MS bow-echo, indicative of
    severe wind potential. The storms in Louisiana have a history of
    producing severe hail and occasional wind damage. So far, these
    storms have attempted to grow upscale into a larger MCS multiple
    times. However, at least transient supercellular structures have
    been the general storm mode with the LA storms, possibly because
    vertical shear is too strong to allow for a dominant cold pool and
    subsequent bow-echo MCS development. Should upscale growth occur,
    severe winds with hurricane force gusts would be likely, along with
    a leading-line-embedded tornadoes. Otherwise, if supercell
    structures persist, then a mix of severe winds and hail will be
    likely, with 2+ inch diameter stones possible.

    ..Squitieri.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-aMeMPdDko667XcfUqtMhERVvszWeiz2V74etEmqqQCrHkBeVNeUe67NHT6VzaL3O74KqoFmW= _UGr9rqqmgBQXFPY74$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31959179 32479201 33029208 33519168 33779111 33879025
    33798931 33448845 32798824 32188831 31698859 31428919
    31369015 31419088 31559168 31959179=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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