ACUS11 KWNS 141953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141952=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-142145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern/coastal GA and far north
FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141952Z - 142145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing threat for large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes may prompt watch issuance this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection this morning, some
airmass recovery has occurred across parts of southeastern/coastal
GA and north FL. Recent radar imagery shows an outflow boundary from
prior thunderstorms is still continuing southward along/near the
FL/GA line. But, filtered daytime heating to the north of this
boundary has allowed surface temperatures to generally increase into
the low to mid 80s downstream of multiple supercells ongoing across southwestern into south-central GA. There are still some concerns
about instability due to a large area of remnant stratiform
precipitation, with MLCAPE quickly dropping off with northward
extent across coastal GA into southern SC. Regardless, deep-layer
shear still appears strong enough (35-45+ kt) to support supercells.
Current expectations are for the ongoing supercells to spread
eastward over the next few hours, while posing a threat for large
hail and damaging winds. Enough low-level shear is also present to
foster low-level updraft rotation and some risk for a couple of
tornadoes. Convective trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance this afternoon.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gDyurmKFMBRSL1hd4-uPp_CDalSldYSvvvQh9_z-r0f6wvO14P7IPHOhFoixyRC1NfUwyRz4= eIZ-JoNYlBYqL_OF_U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

LAT...LON 30908289 31808294 32068317 32108246 31958174 31618109
31008140 30398135 30338212 30648308 30908289=20


=3D =3D =3D
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