ACUS11 KWNS 141606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141606=20 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern New Jersey...far southeast New York...Massachusetts...Connecticut...Rhode Island

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141606Z - 141830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of hail (perhaps near 1 inch in
diameter) and damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms this
afternoon. The overall severe threat is expected to be isolated and
a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Modest surface heating has resulted in surface
temperatures warming to over 70 F in several locales ahead of a
primary rain band, contributing to 8+ C/km low-level lapse rates
(per 15Z mesoanalysis). Strong forcing for ascent associated with
the approaching 998 mb low will encourage several thunderstorms to
develop over the next few hours, within and ahead of the
aforementioned rain band. These storms will overspread the steep
low-level lapse rates/mixed boundary layer, promoting efficient
evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport to support
damaging gusts. Mid-level lapse rates are mediocre. However,
elongated hodographs suggest that the strongest of storm cores may
produce some hail, and an instance or two of 1 inch diameter stones
cannot be completely ruled out. The severe threat is expected to be
isolated however, and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6O4gjY84uw_LDqq50lBEFRnr2haK_6QiAPtGdZp8tV2pRSbB_RMrAT2SjMbJcdDwD9wXwOu1Y= GM4Zx6a09amyr_FgG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON 40527524 41847437 42637346 42827294 42747217 42627144
42357109 41527159 41087239 40737295 40437349 40177414
40267490 40527524=20


=3D =3D =3D
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