ACUS11 KWNS 141527
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141526=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-141730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1036
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern AL into southwestern
GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141526Z - 141730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...If supercells can be sustained, then large to very large
hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes may occur. Watch issuance is
possible if thunderstorms strengthen further.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed across parts of
southeastern AL along/south of a front and ongoing small cluster in south-central GA. This activity is being aided by a 20-30 kt
southwesterly level jet and related warm air advection. Continued
daytime heating of a very moist low-level airmass, and the presence
of steep mid-level lapse rates, has already fostered around
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The latest VWP from KEOX shows a veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper
levels, with 50-60 kt of westerly winds present at mid levels.
Similar values of deep-layer shear will easily support supercells
with any thunderstorms that can be sustained into parts of
southwestern GA. Large to very large hail will be a concern, but a
couple of tornadoes may also occur as the west-southwesterly
low-level jet and 0-1 km SRH may modestly strengthen further through
the afternoon. Signs of increasing supercell coverage/intensity may
prompt watch issuance at some point in the next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7qacv3pB6QOI2HlCR4B_iz9Or-Fjw27LXoVwbjgVcKY15y5NBjQlhppxPOX6aoLz8O02yiBLM= y-QKD96pMID_n1E_4c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 31048498 31048607 31308612 31548607 31558584 31578534
31748510 31938498 31888363 31788317 31448317 30978322
30858379 31048498=20


=3D =3D =3D
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