ACUS11 KWNS 141440
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141440=20
ALZ000-141645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1035
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northern/central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 141440Z - 141645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will likely increase over the next
couple of hours as thunderstorms move eastward from Mississippi.
Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. A couple
tornadoes also appear possible. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Multiple small clusters of intense thunderstorms are
ongoing across northern MS this morning. Convection is also
beginning to increase across parts of northwest into central AL
ahead of the clusters in a low-level warm advection regime. A
stalled surface front is draped generally northwest to southeast
across central AL, with a notable gradient in the ML/MUCAPE fields
evident on latest mesoanalysis. Impressive mid/upper-level flow
westerly winds were noted on area 12Z soundings, with associated
50-60+ kt of deep-layer shear easily supporting organized
convection. Any thunderstorms that can develop ahead of the ongoing
clusters may be supercells, capable of producing large to very large
hail given the elongated hodographs aloft and presence of steepening
mid-level lapse rates. Severe/damaging winds will also become an
increasing concern as the clusters move east-southeastward from MS
into AL over the next few hours. Although low-level winds are veered
somewhat to west-southwesterly, there may still be enough 0-1 km SRH
to support some threat for a couple tornadoes with any supercells
that can be sustained. Watch issuance will likely be needed across
parts of north/central AL to address the increasing severe threat
this morning.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6MygGpBpETjN5X_H6NwXoJwDiOTu5i20aVL4f6gMlaqL-roElcGBLEJ66UYVfmytGd3KRQZnQ= A9ZoXdoH8Un_U41pVg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34588809 34438739 33908603 33478540 32398504 31908519
31698549 32058625 32428748 32838832 34588809=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)