ACUS11 KWNS 141250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141250=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-141415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1034
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Extreme northeast OK into northwest/central AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141250Z - 141415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A small severe storm cluster may persist through the
morning, with a threat of hail and locally damaging gusts. Watch
issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Immediately in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough
across southern KS, a small but intense thunderstorm cluster has
persisted this morning across northeast OK, with recent reports of
severe gusts and hail. This system may continue to move downstream
along the instability gradient into northwest and central AR through
the morning, though its longevity is somewhat uncertain since it is
following in the immediate wake of another severe storm cluster.

The 12Z LZK sounding depicted very favorable deep-layer shear and
sufficient buoyancy to maintain a threat of large hail with embedded
supercells within the cluster. Any additional upscale growth could
result in an increasing severe-wind potential, despite the somewhat
elevated nature of the ongoing convection. Watch issuance is
possible downstream in order to address these threats.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6D4dP7ttHJngfZC20MkgjnNBZWIZOUaucswrfG8I4Zhgvs0YYLoubfBm4wcyN1YqteXhRvdaw= k0gcxC4JGYvMDX6SI0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 36519482 36029323 35379269 34979299 34999369 35359493
35989554 36519482=20


=3D =3D =3D
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