ACUS11 KWNS 141238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141238=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southern OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141238Z - 141445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development is possible later this morning,
though timing remains uncertain. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...At 1230 UTC, increasing cumulus is noted on visible and
IR imagery across northeast TX/southeast OK, which may be the
precursor to more robust elevated thunderstorm development. Regional
12Z soundings depict very favorable instability and shear across the
region, with MUCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, steep midlevel lapse
rates, and strong effective shear in excess of 60 kt. This is
resulting in a conditionally favorable environment for supercells,
with an attendant threat of very large hail.=20

However, uncertainty remains regarding the timing and coverage of
development through the morning, with stronger large-scale ascent
likely focused north of this region. While a watch will likely be
needed at some point later today across parts of the MCD area, the
short-term potential remains uncertain. Watch issuance is currently
considered possible through 15 UTC, though it will become likely if
there is any indication of robust elevated supercell development.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wiII_6UupYiEtMKFkKg9eV-gp3rgi1ARkJ-6Zdtc93TP4oqq5dVxWsoj9R-foNyARcicBIqf= goVh7WauJS4iohKrjg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34169721 34529621 34159417 33719289 33119227 32719275
32709362 32819510 32939682 33099725 33439743 34169721=20


=3D =3D =3D
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