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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1032

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 14 12:23:28 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 141223
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141222=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-141345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1032
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0722 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Central/eastern AR into northern MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 141222Z - 141345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe hail/wind threat will spread southeastward this
    morning. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...At 1215 UTC, a supercell cluster is moving
    southeastward across central AR, with some tendency for forward
    propagation noted over the last hour. This cluster is coincident
    with a convectively enhanced midlevel vorticity maximum across
    northern AR, and immediately downstream of another storm cluster and
    vorticity maximum across northeast OK. A southwesterly low-level jet
    should help to sustain this cluster into mid morning, with strong
    deep-layer shear (as noted on the KLZK VWP) continuing to support
    organized storm structures. Embedded supercells will remain capable
    of large hail and localized damaging gusts.=20

    While the cluster is currently somewhat elevated, relatively limited
    downstream cloudiness should allow for some diurnal heating, which
    could result in increasing damaging wind potential if further
    upscale growth occurs. This cluster will eventually move out of WW
    287 into parts of northern MS, where downstream watch issuance is
    possible.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kp7ZrpQwvF9phDQmNDMw_5zdS4x8JmN4wSSmRN6T9oZJykcl95V4iUkendsTBgW19OrT1pqE= IzpYOTo2VQ-de1OnCE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35019297 35429153 34919033 34538891 34178831 33708829
    33398870 33388948 33469020 33709159 34189274 34649308
    35019297=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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