ACUS11 KWNS 141020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141020=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-141145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Southern MS into adjacent parts of eastern LA and
south AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141020Z - 141145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase later this morning, with a
threat of hail, damaging gusts, and possibly a couple of tornadoes.
Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...At 1015 UTC, an elevated thunderstorm cluster is moving east-southeastward across northern LA. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 288
was recently issued in order to address the short-term severe
hail/wind threat associated with this cluster into parts of
south-central MS. Meanwhile, weak shower development has recently
been noted from eastern LA into far southern MS/AL, within a richly
moist environment characterized by dewpoints in the upper 70s F.
Short-term guidance continues to suggest the potential for deep
convection to erupt in this region near or after sunrise, within a warm-advection regime attendant to a moderate southwesterly
low-level jet.=20

If deep convection can be sustained within this regime, MLCAPE of
greater than 2500 J/kg and effective shear of 50-60 kt will be quite
favorable for supercell development, with an attendant threat of
hail (possibly very large) and localized severe gusts. Initial
development could be slightly elevated, but decreasing MLCINH would
support surface-based supercells with time, with low-level shear/SRH
sufficient for a tornado threat as well. There is also some
potential for the ongoing cluster to propagate southeastward and
become rooted closer to the surface later this morning.=20

While uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of the severe
threat with southward extent this morning, Tornado Watch issuance is
possible if surface-based supercell development appears imminent.
Such a watch would potentially include southern parts of WW 288.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LGG4zZFUM80__d8MU99nsB0t8RxxFO71sncBtBZ3crDaVt2gebbmgqAnJcUKz3_DYeRgoxfp= TDxaHjda4grnRKe6zI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31259127 31539110 31688981 31648900 31498798 30978780
30838776 30458829 30358968 30239104 30389127 30749131
30959131 31259127=20


=3D =3D =3D
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