ACUS11 KWNS 140909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140908=20
ARZ000-141045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0408 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Northwest into central AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287...

Valid 140908Z - 141045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 287
continues.

SUMMARY...A large hail threat will persist through the early
morning.

DISCUSSION...A couple of elevated supercells have recently
intensified from extreme northeast OK into northwest AR. These
storms are likely being aided by ascent attendant to a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough over central KS. MUCAPE of greater
than 1500 J/kg and relatively strong deep-layer shear will continue
to support a short-term threat of supercells with large (possibly
very large hail) into northwest AR. The longevity of these cells is
somewhat uncertain, but the southernmost supercell may persist into
a larger portion of northwest AR as it moves along the instability
gradient through the early morning. Depending on short-term
convective trends, local watch expansion may eventually be needed
into parts of north-central AR.=20

Additional development has recently been from western into central
AR, in the wake of earlier extensive convection. The environment
remains conditionally favorable for elevated supercells in this
region, and some severe-hail threat may redevelop through the early
morning into central AR, within a weak but persistent low-level warm
advection regime.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9cNA0jvRkQmTGaR3A7Aw_ZHGujbEeSnnnrrEBqPPwPiz1chCiLURyGfUeoe4XSuXDXciGrNCP= gX0jSuSkEV6_X5g-74$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 36409450 36469399 36029252 35219177 34499183 34599381
35339432 35849441 36409450=20


=3D =3D =3D
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