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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1016

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 13 18:30:49 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 131830
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131830=20
    TXZ000-132000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1016
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0130 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

    Areas affected...is portions of central into northern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 131830Z - 132000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across central and
    northern areas of TX. The stronger storms may produce large hail,
    with some stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Trends are being
    monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    DISCUSSION...Recent satellite trends depict growing CU on the cool
    side of a stationary west-to-east baroclinic zone, with the latest
    KFWS radar data suggesting convective initiation is underway. While
    the low-level jet has been gradually weakening through the
    afternoon, 18Z mesoanalysis depicts modest low-level WAA with the
    approach of a low-amplitude 700 mb perturbation. Modest low-level
    veering but considerable hodograph elongation is evident in forecast
    soundings. As such, it is possible that supercells may develop north
    of the boundary over the next few hours given 60-70 kts of effective
    bulk shear. 2+ inch diameter hail may accompany the strongest
    storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed, with
    the timing of storm intensification still uncertain.

    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7TmzcTJUzuu-DPnb_hL3hi9-ohPnl84XLPNYhqHYnGzKJ-YBZwVL2YXVrSLT22PobVuyYX3y_= xT67eA1cZb8De2PJlI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32499890 32909853 33239770 33299632 33049567 32379549
    32159559 31949613 31829702 31849772 31939823 32079859
    32499890=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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