ACUS11 KWNS 131623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131622=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-131845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeast TX into northern LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131622Z - 131845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail may be increasing with elevated
supercells in northeast Texas. This threat may continue into
northern Louisiana this afternoon. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A pair of elevated supercells has recently
restrengthened across parts of northeast TX. Modest (around 20-25
kt) southwesterly low-level winds/ascent may be aiding these
thunderstorms. This activity is occurring in the wake of earlier
activity across the ArkLaTex. But, latest mesoanalysis still
suggests around 2000-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE is available to support
this robust convection in the short term. Deep-layer shear of 50-60+
kt will also aid updraft organization, with supercells favored given
the strength of the mid-level flow and long/straight hodographs
aloft. Isolated large hail will be the main severe threat in the
short term as these supercells move east-southeastward towards
northwestern LA. It is not clear whether additional robust
supercells will develop given the weak ascent at low levels and
aloft. Given this uncertainty, convective trends will be monitored
for possible watch issuance.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9lsHnpXbP0Xqx20j3JJH24WuCultpSpbMJCAILr1c9QGUSy_hSMokQKQaIXMtW51chV9x31RG= JNQcogyZzQQEwVgC0s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 33439556 33519517 33029407 32829309 32259257 31809279
31699358 31979462 32439527 33139574 33439556=20


=3D =3D =3D
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