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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1011

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 13 13:03:14 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 131303
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131302=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1011
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0802 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

    Areas affected...ArkLaTex region

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

    Valid 131302Z - 131430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and locally damaging gusts will
    continue to spread east-southeast this morning. Local expansion of
    WW 279 may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell near the Metroplex has dissipated,
    but vigorous storms are persisting this morning closer to the
    ArkLaTex region, within an unstable and favorably sheared
    environment. Some weakening and veering of the low-level jet is
    expected with time this morning, lending some uncertainty regarding
    the longevity of severe potential into mid morning. However, with
    downstream MUCAPE remaining above 2000 J/kg and favorable deep-layer
    flow/shear expected to persist, somewhat organized cells/clusters
    may continue southeastward with a hail and damaging wind risk, which
    may require local expansion of WW 279 in the short term as storms
    move into a larger portion of southern AR and northern LA. The need
    for additional downstream watch issuance later this morning remains
    uncertain, but will be possible if organized storms persist over the
    next 2-3 hours.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9GpZv0MIzXMxgz6_QrejvcULZnHlaVQjl9PckmhkVZbv689_MIyC9psEYMyjelk-PiYitwW57= DmisPbaFvAvR6NvmjQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 31949342 32279512 32769606 33399651 34039634 33979613
    34179383 33919299 33309157 32299136 31889152 31669204
    31719264 31949342=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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