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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1009

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 13 07:53:16 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 130753
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130752=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1009
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

    Areas affected...Southern OK/North TX into the ArkLaTex region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 130752Z - 130915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated supercell development is possible later this
    morning, with a threat of large hail and locally strong/damaging
    gusts. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Recent elevated thunderstorm development has been noted
    across northwest TX into south-central OK, to the north of an outflow-reinforced surface boundary draped across parts of
    central/north TX. With time, storm coverage is expected to increase
    within a low-level warm advection regime, supported by a modestly
    strong low-level jet. Ample elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE in excess of
    2000 J/kg) to the north of the boundary will favor vigorous
    updrafts, with strong effective shear (greater than 50 kt)
    continuing to support the potential for organized convection.=20

    Favorably elongated and veering wind profiles (even for somewhat
    elevated updrafts) will support supercell potential later this
    morning, with some clustering and upscale growth possible with time.
    Hail (possibly very large) will likely be the initial primary
    threat, though some increase in severe-wind potential is possible
    with any notable upscale growth. The coverage and timing of the
    severe threat remain somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance is
    possible later this morning in response to these threats.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_vXGoqxsKX3wqHXsTMMk5jy5C2-BvdmInOWv8BasUhQa2tVvfa_Ba8L4KagBBdlyMGdtCsPtj= 28Mv_07M36I116zRek$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32399499 32619762 32909863 33109932 33669935 34189927
    34879875 34879688 34279465 33759352 33569326 32969302
    32409323 32399499=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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