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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1007

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 13 00:50:41 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 130050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130049=20
    TXZ000-130215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1007
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0749 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

    Areas affected...central TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 278...

    Valid 130049Z - 130215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 278 continues.

    SUMMARY...The tornado risk will continue for another couple of hours
    across central TX.

    DISCUSSION...Three supercells are ongoing this evening across
    central TX in the vicinity of a stalled front/outflow boundary.
    Strong instability (greater than 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and effective
    shear magnitudes greater than 50 kt will continue to support
    organized supercells capable of large hail. In the low-levels, SRH
    values are maximized closer to the surface boundary where winds are
    more easterly. STP value also are greater near the boundary. This is
    where greatest tornado potential is expected within the next 1-2
    hours if a cell can become established along the boundary. While
    supercells moving more to the right of the boundary may still pose a
    tornado risk, low-level shear is weaker with southward extent. Cell
    developing southeastward may approach the southern edge of Tornado
    Watch 278, or even move just outside the watch. However, severe
    potential is expected to wane with southward extent into the EWX CWA
    and a downstream watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Leitman.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5WfE9EFiQydtaR5nusCf-62YPTVCeA7ZFtjqSBw9HwCbx3x5AuNCE-J4bLe2woDaOqrSju2XW= AUlyciz_fEUIdPL3gM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31309976 31499974 31839942 32069892 32129843 32059769
    31769725 31509710 30739715 30609790 30619875 30939940
    31309976=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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