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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1004

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 12 21:48:08 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 122148
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122147=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-122315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1004
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0447 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

    Areas affected...southern OK into north Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 122147Z - 122315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms near the Red River in south-central
    Oklahoma may pose a strong gust and large risk the next couple of
    hours. Additional storms may develop southward across north Texas
    the next few hours, but this remains uncertain.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across south-central OK will
    continue to track east/southeast the next couple of hours. An
    Oklahoma Mesonet site at Walters measured a gust to 42 mph in the
    past hour and MRMS MESH indicate hail to 1.5-1.75 inches possible.
    This activity is elevated behind a front/convective outflow, though
    MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Additionally, modest midlevel lapse rates
    and elongated hodographs suggest strong storms may continue near the
    Red River in the short term.

    To the south, a gradient of strong instability exists across north
    TX. While this area also remains behind the convectively reinforced
    outflow to the south across central TX, strong vertical shear is
    present amid temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the
    mid/upper 60s. Additional, elevated storms may develop in this
    environment, posing mainly a large hail risk. Given the conditional
    nature of the threat, and uncertainty in timing/coverage of any
    additional storm development, the need for a watch remains possible
    but uncertain.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/12/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6K3N8rw5LZSfqzffk2jClEAJkS6_2UPJ7dlLLBSatUe2nJwg9Jd3g1lIvyFhr3v40IqCSiEsn= lmLx72DfZnQtwzgtug$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34319776 34249709 33969631 33659590 33389580 32839587
    32609597 32479640 32469706 32449750 32529782 32859822
    33469830 34089813 34159803 34319776=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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