ACUS11 KWNS 121834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121833=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-121930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0999
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...central Louisiana into southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 121833Z - 121930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of central
Louisiana and Mississippi in advance of the cold front. Large hail
and damaging gusts are the main threats. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is likely soon.

DISCUSSION...Robust convection has recently developed across
northern/central portions of Louisiana and is expected to continue
intensifying over the next few hours. Surface temperatures in the
90s F amid 70+ F dewpoints is contributing up to 4000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Strong mid-level flow is also supporting 40+ kts of effective bulk
shear and elongated hodographs. As such, storms should organize into multicellular clusters and transient supercells, with damaging gusts
and large hail the main threats. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
needed soon to address the rapidly developing severe threat.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6u0mZ-i2u6Tqz3fMLDgMjSfd2QE2KvhqiB0v0BPva48Tp41BwCNWGeWNTx8vhfhdUw2WOYYON= qEsBJnj-zKWGFWhqbM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32019390 31939284 31829128 31569046 31088984 30648987
30289057 30229144 30349231 30629308 31049361 32019390=20


=3D =3D =3D
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