ACUS11 KWNS 121825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121825=20
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-122000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0998
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Georgia into South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121825Z - 122000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop across central GA
into SC this afternoon, with damaging gusts being the primary
threat. A WW issuance appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures continue to warm into the mid 80s
F ahead of the cold front given ample diurnal heating. Given near-70
F surface dewpoints in place, 1500+ J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE has
developed across the warm sector in tandem with 30 kts of effective
bulk shear/modestly elongated hodographs. Given poor mid-level lapse
rates, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts appear to be the main
threat with the strongest storms that can develop. The overall
severe threat should remain relatively isolated and a WW issuance is
not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!44muSrBhDjdyBL5CY79Gj_kz-jeZ6fprZAtc6mDew1oeSwt2zcBU1_mLNRkqxukKXYp2dI1RE= 4ObgMhNYLSOv-dWspQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 32628430 33218307 33798207 34818097 34858018 34517941
34097894 33827889 33597897 33157926 32767976 32238064
31798121 31298138 31168177 31268234 31528292 31688328
31838371 32038410 32268440 32628430=20


=3D =3D =3D
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