ACUS11 KWNS 121718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121717=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-121845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...portions of south-central Virginia into eastern
North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 121717Z - 121845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing for portions of far
southern VA into eastern NC. Damaging gusts are expected to be the
main threat. A WW issuance is possible pending trends in greater
storm coverage.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating has allowed for modest boundary-layer deepening/mixing ahead of an approaching cold front, with
thunderstorms already initiating along the front in southwest VA and
along a confluence zone in far eastern NC. Surface
temperatures/dewpoints warming into the 80s/70s F are contributing
to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE despite mediocre mid-level lapse rates.
Furthermore, the approach of the mid-level trough will support
strengthening mid-level flow and corresponding 30+ kts of effective
bulk shear/elongating hodographs in addition to deep-layer ascent.=20

A net increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected
through the afternoon. Multicellular structures and short line
segments should pose a damaging gust threat given 7-8 C/km low-level
lapse rates. Trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Xe3itICwXs8uawLOKmRRrVEShmNBwP3DYqS2X0KIf6dB6yGL5B-k7SAfoXxVMaLwFJ3pbXvM= CG7ERLIy3M0lgtBxso$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34998080 36247934 37207877 37337853 37257813 37077784
36877770 36647750 36437675 36207621 35857608 35217641
34607714 34287791 34157838 34417907 34747972 34998080=20


=3D =3D =3D
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