ACUS11 KWNS 121339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121338=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-121515-

Mesoscale Discussion 0992
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern OK and far northeast TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274...

Valid 121338Z - 121515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 274
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail should continue in the
short term. Downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...An elevated supercell/small bow with a history of
producing large to very large hail (up to 2.5 inches in diameter)
will continue to move quickly east-southeastward across southeastern
OK over the next couple of hours. Ample deep-layer shear (40-50+ kt)
is present owing to a seasonably strong mid/upper-level westerly
jet. The elevated instability/MUCAPE estimated by the latest
mesoanalysis gradually weakens with eastward extent into far
southeastern OK and northeast TX. Recent runs of the HRRR also
suggest a gradual weakening of this supercell with time. While an
isolated threat for large hail may continue in the short term (next
1-2 hours) with this robust thunderstorm, current expectations are
for the overall severe potential to lessen later this morning.
Therefore, downstream watch issuance is unlikely.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JrwXSpnjKM4Zc1NsLdwKxZaWn6LXzrW4r0w1yvh8nk11icfO7AmL9AkcKT6L_PxmHAVktDVc= dhBKtAc24hQWoOT5PM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34619857 34929806 34779669 34489564 33799510 33539541
33889749 34289908 34529916 34619857=20


=3D =3D =3D
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