1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0979

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 11 22:18:00 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 112217
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112217=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-112315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0979
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0517 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

    Areas affected...portions of north-central MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 112217Z - 112315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe potential is expected to increase across portions
    of north-central Mississippi this evening. Damaging gusts and hail
    will be possible, and a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
    needed in the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...A couple of isolated supercells likely producing large
    hail across east-central AR will continue shifting east/southeast
    toward north-central MS the next couple of hours. The downstream
    environment is characterized by strong instability amid effective
    bulk shear values around 35-40 kt. This should support continuation
    of these cells, with additional activity expected to develop/shift
    southeast from northern MS this evening. Initially, large hail and
    gusts to 60 mph will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates will
    support strong outflow winds over the next couple of hours. A
    modestly low-level jet (around 25-30 kt) is forecast to increase
    this evening and some upscale development into bowing segments is
    possible. If this evolution occurs, potential for swaths of damaging
    gusts will increase. Given the overall environment, and trends in
    HRRR/RRFS guidance, a severe thunderstorm watch likely will be
    needed in the next hour or so for portions of north-central MS.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7yTQZKV86mWNRvV8HrSw7yWNjCoQmQLc9yL9BAbuEBjIXvUI9-ABbzyM2jxJUQ8iKiZS6uLQD= WTrRkX53wa-lrJYF5k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 34209091 34119040 33888950 33658894 33188849 32728873
    32548903 32588976 32689019 32939081 33149107 33469128
    33709132 34079121 34209091=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)