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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0978

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 11 22:06:57 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 112206
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112206=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-112330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0978
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0506 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southeast Colorado...northeast New
    Mexico...the western Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwest Texas
    Panhandle.

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...

    Valid 112206Z - 112330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat, which is primarily large to
    very large hail, will persist through the evening.

    DISCUSSION...Strengthening low-level upslope flow (1km deep per PUX
    VWP) has led to the development of numerous thunderstorms along the
    Colorado Front Range. The strongest of these is a supercell which
    has taken a right turn across Las Animas county. Most CAM guidance
    indicated only one or two strong storms may materialize, but that
    they could persist well into the evening and eventually move into
    the TX/OK Panhandle. Current observations would support this
    solution as additional strong cells have not developed yet and the
    environment remains favorable (1000+ MLCAPE and 40 knots of
    effective shear) ahead of the ongoing strong supercell. Hail up to 2
    inches has already been reported in Las Animas county with similar
    peak hail size expected for the duration of the supercell lifecycle
    as it moves southeast this evening.=20

    Will not rule out additional strong supercell development this
    evening, but expect the primary threat will be associated with the
    ongoing strong supercell in Las Animas county.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xAhf5s6JtPK5hKg3f3aPNkVUoYdbizK9hqYC-ZqSotVejzSU6RzxjwLbkb_8Vti1O3EYxXa_= RC3beK3Fqqz1C7_W8o$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36250539 37400514 38150415 38070235 37050186 36170208
    36080334 36250539=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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