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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0977

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 11 21:44:28 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 112144
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112143=20
    TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-112315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0977
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0443 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern AR...northern MS...western to
    Middle TN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265...266...

    Valid 112143Z - 112315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265, 266
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Potential for damaging gusts and large hail is expected to
    increase over the next 1-2 hours from parts of eastern Arkansas and
    northern Mississippi into western and Middle Tennessee.

    DISCUSSION...Mostly discrete cellular convection will continue to
    shift east the next few hours. Recent radar trends have shown
    increasing intensity in this activity, especially over eastern AR
    and western TN, with more modest intensification toward Middle TN.
    These storms will continue to shift into moderate to strong
    instability over the next few hours. Steep to very steep low-level
    lapse rates are in place downstream of this ongoing activity with
    MLCAPE values ranging from 1500 J/kg across Middle TN to 3000 J/kg
    further west. Vertical shear remains favorable for organized
    convection, though is somewhat lower over Middle TN and becomes
    stronger with western extent into northern MS. VWP data from NQA
    also shows a bit more elongated hodographs compared to the hodograph
    at OHX as well, suggesting some better potential for large hail.

    Overall this environment should support increasing potential for
    large hail and damaging gusts over the next couple hours. With time,
    potential exists for some upscale development into bowing clusters
    via storm interactions and consolidating outflows.

    ..Leitman.. 06/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Cv2caZlZciuKfXyMN5jfvELIxPFEIwZ_iBM9iq411pcZPpF2akFy1Myj_w_0UJT2Q7joT4xy= Ci2wD24AGQmmEP4G8w$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

    LAT...LON 36498615 36388590 36188577 35948580 35548612 35128720
    34508881 34118979 34059091 34119137 34289167 34539172
    34879151 35219096 35578989 36048814 36528679 36528655
    36498615=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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