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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0975

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 11 21:02:59 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 112102
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112102=20
    TXZ000-112300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0975
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0402 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

    Areas affected...Big Country into north Central Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 112102Z - 112300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with gusty winds and large hail possible
    through the afternoon. This area is being monitored for watch
    potential in the next couple of hours.

    DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 90s
    across portions of central Texas with dew points in the upper 60s to
    70s. This has yielded MLCAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. In the
    last hour, thunderstorms have begun to develop, with cumulus
    increasing near Abilene. In addition, surface winds indicate a
    convergence zone across Central Texas. Timing of development further
    east into the Metroplex is less certain. Cu in this region shows
    little vertical extent as of 20:45z. However, given strong buoyancy
    initiation could occur before CAM guidance window of 22-00z. Storm
    mode will favor clustered supercells with potential for large hail
    and damaging winds (occasional splits given straight, elongated
    hodographs). Given uncertainty on timing of initiation, trends
    within this area are being monitored for a watch.

    ..Thornton/Thornton.. 06/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5m22-6JHv_FS5Tj6_aFlkdy8aPoC4c3OPXhfQvZHqS4eQF7C3HoB8MMu9JNB5OP1Yb1YXm0lG= UZSfTfgN9NLWA9tfjU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31800025 32180013 32479981 32889904 33219822 33309722
    33209620 32759568 32469559 32059564 31819578 31569620
    31659799 31479859 31369906 31309947 31319973 31420008
    31800025=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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