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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0973

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 11 18:45:25 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 111845
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111844=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-111945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0973
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0144 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

    Areas affected...eastern Colorado into northeastern New Mexico and
    the Oklahoma Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 111844Z - 111945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Potential for large hail and a tornado with thunderstorm
    development this afternoon. Watch likely needed by around 20z.

    DISCUSSION...Upslope flow across the high terrain in eastern New
    Mexico and Colorado will be the focus of thunderstorm development
    through the afternoon. Westerly flow will bring storms off the high
    terrain into the plains through the late afternoon and evening.
    Daytime heating should result in modest MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
    amid favorable deep layer shear around 40-45 kts. Hodograph
    structures are largely linear and elongated, with strong deep layer
    flow and steep lapse rates. This environment will support high-based
    supercell with the potential for large hail (with instances near 2
    inches) and damaging winds. Weak low-level shear will limit tornado
    potential but any discrete supercells that become established could
    pose risk of a tornado as they track eastward into the better air
    mass across far eastern Colorado/Oklahoma Panhandle. A watch will
    likely be needed by around 20z.

    ..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/11/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5FFMD70V5J6yZX6MVunQSWOfBD3S6qRCaq3IgYrjdlfy_q01bAh__z7Hn1d7cXJEt7qe8MM6h= 52eNdlyw175QIbZtBQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37850539 38530547 39990531 40180485 40010413 39440370
    38970341 37820252 37410220 37060199 36650168 36510201
    36480216 36470248 36440279 36520375 36630410 36660438
    36880471 37140508 37350522 37850539=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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