ACUS11 KWNS 110048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110047=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-110215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0970
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 110047Z - 110215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for damaging gusts and large hail will likely
persist south of WW 262 into southeast Texas and the Upper Texas
Coast vicinity. A new watch will likely be needed within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms across central/eastern TX will
continue to develop southeast this evening into tonight. Latest
trends indicate some upscale development into bowing segments is
occurring, and severe gusts have been measured at KHLR (61 kt) and
KACT (52 kt) within the last 20 minutes. Given a favorable
downstream environment characterized by low 70s F dewpoints, strong
instability and effective shear greater than 40 kt, the severe risk
should persist for several more hours, necessitating the need for a
downstream severe thunderstorm watch.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8TNL9x4t4rgbj1d05JTuhZ_33IGT_Fa4CZ_Lb6qIwrzz9dCE9M3dI9R-asGqsXX5XYqzV2faV= aPcJ4VhkI9qdPf02ys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 28809548 30199672 30639654 30979552 30999463 30879386
30309370 29819386 29409399 28809548=20


=3D =3D =3D
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