• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0963

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 10 15:14:44 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 101514
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101514=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0963
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1014 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

    Areas affected...northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma into the
    Arklatex region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101514Z - 101745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms approaching the Arklatex may gradually increase in
    intensity throughout the day, with locally severe gusts and
    marginally severe hail.

    DISCUSSION...Strong storms currently extend from far southeast OK
    into northeast TX, with an outflow boundary trailing westward across
    northern TX. To the east, a diffuse boundary also exists from
    southern AR into northwest MS in association with outflow from
    overnight convection. Measured winds associated with the current
    storms have generally been weak at 25-35 kt.

    Latest storm trends indicate slow strengthening and deepening of the
    updrafts, with small hail cores evident as well. Given further
    destabilization of the moist air mass today, further strengthening
    of this small MCS cannot be ruled out. While shear is weak, good
    PWAT values over 1.50" along with MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg may still
    yield a forward propagating severe complex capable of damaging gusts
    and marginal hail.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!42x3FaY_kJv5LuvJmEBIURzxPONF3VkmVh0YZXcQ2PqDzPSjsKrcA4A7an6jLUEb12s8zOvGl= u2_Jiz2LH5nn5iiS34$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33269574 33489536 33659509 33949481 34139431 34199391
    34039327 33739260 33069238 32439254 31979286 31809352
    31849416 31979492 32259544 32499575 33269574=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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