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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0961

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 9 21:14:09 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 092114
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092113=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-092245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0961
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0413 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

    Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle and vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 092113Z - 092245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening
    across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity.

    DISCUSSION...While most CAM guidance, other than the NAM, mixed out
    dewpoints across the Texas Panhandle today, it has not materialized
    with upper 50 to low 60s dewpoints across much of the Texas
    Panhandle. As a result, 2000 J/kg MLCAPE has developed across the
    region with only weak inhibition, per SPC mesoanalysis. A few storms
    have developed along a dryline from near Clovis to north of Lubbock
    with some additional towers observed beneath the cirrus plume. A
    broad region of ascent will continue to overspread this region
    through the evening which could help aid in storm development. If
    sustained updrafts can develop, supercell organization is possible
    with with around 40 knots of effective shear. These supercells will
    have a primary hazard of large hail, but a greater damaging wind
    threat could develop if more scattered development occurs and they
    consolidate into a linear segment.=20

    Would expect the threat to remain too isolated/short-lived for a
    watch, but if the severe threat becomes more widespread or shows
    signs of being longer lasting, a severe thunderstorm watch may be
    needed this evening.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6wl3mx4cTw49jfksbFJDXIAIMeswd0aYu9YKw8fc1POkLj9Vwrj-Mai_UYSHw0wDEaZP64Q60= bfKRd9yXDWEMLwO8IQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33500128 34300211 34670312 34960370 35540420 36560284
    36630102 35639979 34549950 33819946 33369957 33110004
    33500128=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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