ACUS11 KWNS 092019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092018=20
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0960
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Far Northeast NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 092018Z - 092215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of hail are possible for the next
few hours across the elevated areas of southeast CO. Addition storms
are possible farther east, with damaging gusts as the primary severe
threat.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is underway over the high
terrain of southeast CO and adjacent northeast NM, supported by
diurnal destabilization and increasing ascent attendant to the
approaching shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development is expected
to continue across the higher terrain this afternoon, before
eventually trending more eastward into the lower elevations of far
southeast CO. Some hail is possible with this more cellular
development over the terrain.

The airmass over the lower elevations is characterized by deep
boundary-layer mixing and associated steep low-level lapse rates.
Deep-layer shear will be modest, which, when combined with the high
cloud bases and steep low-lapse rates, will likely contribute to an outflow-dominant storm structure. Even so, some amalgamation of
storm outflows is possible, with the resulting cluster then pushing
even farther east into far southwest KS and the OK Panhandle. While
the confidence in that convective evolution is moderate, the overall
severity of resulting line is more questionable. As such, convective
trends will be monitored this afternoon for possible watch issuance.

..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9cTjJMCCqnYEzHEoKafb6BlKep9xzV9D2UzRl2esWvufDLobhvbHwWUzq1BMq5qjgojcFUZOY= CeLyC00qgTyKcYM8OY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37440469 38320454 38760394 38690275 38190207 37230213
36690265 36030372 35800420 35950491 37440469=20


=3D =3D =3D
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