ACUS11 KWNS 092009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092008=20
FLZ000-092145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0959
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 092008Z - 092145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts and perhaps a marginally severe hail
report may occur across south Florida this afternoon. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Deep convection has developed along the sea-breeze
convergence zone in the central Florida peninsula. Per mesoanalysis,
storms are in an environment of moderate to strong buoyancy (2000+
J/kg) and modest south-southwesterly deep-layer shear (30-40 kts
effective bulk shear), which may be enough for transient supercell
structures. A seasonably moist troposphere may result in high
precipitation loading and wet microbursts, yielding perhaps some
gusty winds. Additionally, despite seasonably poor midlevel lapse
rates, the deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginally severe
hail report. With time, expect storms to cluster and move offshore.
Due to the expected sparse report coverage, a watch is not
anticipated.

..Supinie/Thompson.. 06/09/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72zdUUtNXrgL-xGt3McIxV2q9rBoAJV3mD_ghV6Y8hCuwFVPyGqmHQqRpfxCSq7seQ-uYFaPk= d4k2n4r6duO1oy103I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 25818020 26088074 26438110 27008125 28028125 28318086
28278033 27618005 26977998 26277997 25898001 25818020=20


=3D =3D =3D
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