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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0946

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jun 7 19:23:51 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 071923
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 071923=20
    NCZ000-SCZ000-072130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0946
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0223 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

    Areas affected...portions of coastal SC to far southeast NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 071923Z - 072130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a risk for locally
    damaging gusts and hail through early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing this afternoon in
    a weak to moderately unstable airmass ahead of a surface cold front.
    Poor midlevel lapse rates and modest boundary-layer moisture are
    limiting stronger destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow also
    remains rather lackluster. However, a narrow corridor of effective
    shear values near 25-30 kt is evident across northern coastal
    portions of SC to adjacent coastal NC. Coupled with very steep
    low-level lapse rates, this may be sufficient for a few cells with
    transient organization. Strong downbursts may accompany this
    activity into early evening as convection shifts east toward, and
    eventually offshore from, the coast. Relatively cool temperatures
    aloft (around -11 C at 500 mb per 12z CHS RAOB) may support small
    hail with any more intense updrafts. However, given modest
    instability, poor midlevel lapse rates, and marginal vertical shear,
    longevity of intense cores may be limited. A severe thunderstorm
    watch is not expected at this time.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 06/07/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9WbkUOkpcpbwtGtzETdZe_e3gxFXE5cEX_ZBscO0eYICYOHyw1PVp4DMMCd7Qsu2rtsZSBVgb= xJyZuQAwP-5AARZzF8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

    LAT...LON 32577994 33118071 33678048 34237963 34357905 34197856
    33977835 33427847 33117864 32947883 32647930 32577994=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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