• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0941

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 6 17:10:47 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 061710
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061710=20
    NYZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-061915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0941
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern PA...northern NJ...southern
    NY/VT...and western MA/CT

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 061710Z - 061915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms may produce gusty winds to 50 mph and
    small hail through the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing early this
    afternoon from central/eastern PA toward the Hudson Valley and
    vicinity. This activity is developing within a rather dry
    boundary-layer with surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F, and
    deep mixing to 2-3 km is evident in forecast soundings and 12z
    regional RAOBs. This will temper overall instability, but steep
    midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km will support up to 500 J/kg
    MLCAPE. Deep-layer flow also is forecast to remain modest, with
    effective shear values typically less than 25 kt. The overall
    environment will limit longevity of more organized and intense
    cells. However, given the dry boundary-layer and very steep
    low-level lapse rates, strong outflow winds will be possible both
    with thunderstorms and even amid evaporating showers. A recent
    thunderstorm near State College PA produced a gust to 40 kt about 30
    minutes ago, and this seems like a reasonable expectation with
    additional thunderstorm activity through the afternoon as convection
    tracks toward the south/southeast. Isolated gusts to 50 mph and
    small hail will be possible, but a severe thunderstorm watch is not
    expected.

    ..Leitman/Grams.. 06/06/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_lJTUjlTln37rybBiJZD_OFTeEBVi1htlp1L69eff8SRZC2-6n_0EPW7n7_2--OKdPrTP0C5= io8DepjZ5PJ8DVAhhs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 43047255 42147252 41367280 40877331 40547373 40407437
    40287562 40107697 40307730 40567749 40937741 41417685
    42217549 42997483 43307420 43687378 43767372 43807360
    43537298 43047255=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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