• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0934

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 4 18:04:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 041804
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 041803=20
    TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-042000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0934
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0103 PM CDT Sun Jun 04 2023

    Areas affected...portions of Western and Middle Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 041803Z - 042000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Marginal risk of damaging wind and hail with afternoon
    thunderstorms.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation has started earlier than
    suggested in most morning CAM guidance across portions of Middle
    Tennessee. Daytime heating and dew points in the 60s have resulted
    in MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. RAP sounding analysis indicates
    steep lapse rates through the profile, which will support a marginal
    risk of severe hail though shear is minimal. Nickel size hail has
    been observed with earlier storms near Dickson, TN. As storm
    coverage increases through the afternoon, clustering will be likely
    with upscale growth along outflows. This mode transition will lead
    to a risk of locally damaging winds. Given weak flow and minimal
    shear for organization, the threats will likely remain too isolated
    for watch consideration.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/04/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9E-iey4D50RcZONl5ZCNfJkJt4vViPCgmpQfPRt06ci3QVUmcnXPboT6Awsv9BEF_v6bnLQr= uR4-KFiD6YlhSPo8is$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 36468873 36738849 36698737 36638702 36628695 36598585
    36618543 36568494 36308491 36158500 35988499 35798528
    35538561 35378574 35238589 35128593 34968592 34798573
    34598560 34348580 34278620 34378661 34548694 34748735
    35018783 35368851 36168888 36468873=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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