• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0925

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 2 22:30:18 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 022230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022229=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-030030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0925
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0529 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

    Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains and
    Panhandle....western Oklahoma...adjacent southwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...

    Valid 022229Z - 030030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat with developing thunderstorm
    activity may remain limited in the near term, but increasing
    potential for strong surface gusts could still evolve through 7-9 PM
    CDT. Trends will continue to be monitored for a new downstream
    severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Developments during the past hour or two have included
    increasing convection in a roughly linear band along the lee surface
    trough across the eastern Texas Panhandle, where mixed-layer CAPE
    has peaked at up to 2500 J/kg. An elongated, significant, but slow
    moving, convective cold pool is approaching from the west, with
    stronger lingering convection continuing primarily on its southern
    flank, east of Plainview into areas northwest of Midland. Forcing
    for ascent on the northern flank of the cold pool will merge with
    the eastern Texas Panhandle convection, supporting further upscale
    growth and a gradual eastward acceleration into western Oklahoma,
    while the southern flank convection also progresses east.

    Deep-layer mean ambient flow across much of this region is southerly
    and modest (up to 20 kt) in strength, with vertical shear only
    allowing for weak to modest easterly near-surface inflow. However,
    given the potential instability of this inflow, there remains
    potential for a gradual further intensification of convection.=20=20

    It is possible that an intersection of the eastward advancing
    outflow, with another stalling convective outflow boundary
    near/south of the Interstate 40 corridor of western Oklahoma, could
    become a focus for more vigorous thunderstorm development, and
    perhaps an evolving mesoscale convective vortex. If this occurs, a
    more substantive risk for strong surface gusts could still evolve
    through 00-02Z.

    ..Kerr.. 06/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tkJ4iMj88_2P4OU4Npfg9hxCRt17WjT_RX0nAYXf-Wnnx30Lgogo-O--uEv6BwdBZWSOJA4a= pYqBro6A2xqSYgj9KA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 34320118 34660087 35350075 35700089 36350095 36890109
    37410105 37500073 37250025 36169955 35459829 33669923
    32840124 33290162 33840128 34320118=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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