ACUS11 KWNS 022230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022229=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-030030-
Mesoscale Discussion 0925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains and
Panhandle....western Oklahoma...adjacent southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...
Valid 022229Z - 030030Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat with developing thunderstorm
activity may remain limited in the near term, but increasing
potential for strong surface gusts could still evolve through 7-9 PM
CDT. Trends will continue to be monitored for a new downstream
severe weather watch.
DISCUSSION...Developments during the past hour or two have included
increasing convection in a roughly linear band along the lee surface
trough across the eastern Texas Panhandle, where mixed-layer CAPE
has peaked at up to 2500 J/kg. An elongated, significant, but slow
moving, convective cold pool is approaching from the west, with
stronger lingering convection continuing primarily on its southern
flank, east of Plainview into areas northwest of Midland. Forcing
for ascent on the northern flank of the cold pool will merge with
the eastern Texas Panhandle convection, supporting further upscale
growth and a gradual eastward acceleration into western Oklahoma,
while the southern flank convection also progresses east.
Deep-layer mean ambient flow across much of this region is southerly
and modest (up to 20 kt) in strength, with vertical shear only
allowing for weak to modest easterly near-surface inflow. However,
given the potential instability of this inflow, there remains
potential for a gradual further intensification of convection.=20=20
It is possible that an intersection of the eastward advancing
outflow, with another stalling convective outflow boundary
near/south of the Interstate 40 corridor of western Oklahoma, could
become a focus for more vigorous thunderstorm development, and
perhaps an evolving mesoscale convective vortex. If this occurs, a
more substantive risk for strong surface gusts could still evolve
through 00-02Z.
..Kerr.. 06/02/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tkJ4iMj88_2P4OU4Npfg9hxCRt17WjT_RX0nAYXf-Wnnx30Lgogo-O--uEv6BwdBZWSOJA4a= pYqBro6A2xqSYgj9KA$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 34320118 34660087 35350075 35700089 36350095 36890109
37410105 37500073 37250025 36169955 35459829 33669923
32840124 33290162 33840128 34320118=20
=3D =3D =3D
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