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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0920

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 2 18:23:15 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 021823
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021822=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0920
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0122 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

    Areas affected...far western Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma
    Panhandle...and far southwestern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 021822Z - 022015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind risk possible through the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Across the Oklahoma and far northern Texas Panhandle
    heating and moistening has been ongoing, noted in surface
    observations and the 18z sounding from Amarillo. This has begun to
    slowly erode the inversion aloft at the base of the elevated mixed
    layer and more stable air across the OK Panhandle into Kansas in the
    wake of a line of storms that moved across the region this morning.
    Storms ongoing just to the south have continued to move northward
    along an outflow boundary and will extend outside of WW253. Shear
    becomes less favorable across this region for tornadoes, given weak
    low-level shear and only modest deep layer shear around 30 kts. This
    will be adequate for transient supercells and mixed-mode clusters
    developing along remnant outflow. Storms will have potential for
    large hail and damaging winds, given steep mid-level lapse rates and
    MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. The small spatial extent of this
    threat likely precludes the need for a watch at this time.

    ..Thornton/Grams.. 06/02/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7mj-Mw563UspcNPXB73siaPp-rRV5h2Q0yGOZl_bAEy6zJiskLqY3PCQYH4I8LqtoN923DoiV= 0hHXJS7uUPCWyyFFKc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36820301 36970295 37010199 37270180 37460158 37490142
    37550113 37510089 37440057 37280026 37190011 37050002
    36809997 36600001 36520061 36560121 36430153 36170170
    36050212 35750225 35690244 35640269 35650302 36040299
    36820301=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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