ACUS11 KWNS 021637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021637=20
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-021830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Areas affected...portions of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 021637Z - 021830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with marginal severe wind threat possible
through the afternoon. Watch issuance unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is expected to continue
through the afternoon across portions of New England amid a modestly
unstable air mass. Daytime heating and dew points in the mid 50s to
low 60s have resulted in MLCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg. An
increase in cumulus across convergence near the higher terrain has
been observed, with a few cells developing. Forcing from a weak
shortwave will help further increase thunderstorm coverage through
the afternoon. Storm mode will likely be a mix of clusters, given
weak shear profiles and best flow largely behind a cold front well
to the north. Sounding analysis shows inverted V profiles with drier
air in the low-levels, suggestive of potential for a few microbursts
and marginal threat of severe wind. Given the more sporadic and
isolated nature of this threat, a watch is not being considered.

..Thornton/Grams.. 06/02/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5BCmcke5Qim5S7wACP43NBhv1sArnAR5_AtMBmuZ8JeqR8-G_E27KWI650co3T5lsAaDLoYDx= VAQL3vp-_d5hvM2F2Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 44577337 44837238 44837153 44747054 44487033 44037035
43367067 42927090 42497113 42127130 41777202 41827262
41897329 42057374 42317408 42587431 43087425 43357424
44577337=20


=3D =3D =3D
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